One of the statements in Philip Hammond’s 2018 autumn Budget was that another 800,000 people were forecast to be in employment by 2023. Is it really likely to happen? Read more about the increase of UK jobs with Payday Loans Net.
In this article you’ll read about :
- Where the Chancellor got his figures from
- What the OBR’s forecast was about 800,000 more people in work
- UK jobs forecasted to be in demand by 2023
- Budget measures to help people to work
According to the Office for National Statistics, the unemployment rate in the UK now stands at 4%. This is the lowest level it’s been since 1975, but more people in work should mean this figure will drop even further. A positive for those desperately looking for work and having to rely on state benefits to get by.
In this article, Payday Loans Net examine the facts beyond this statement. Is it really true that so many job positions will be created and if so, which industries will they be in? We also look at which measures have been implemented or being planned to get people off the dole and back to work. Will people be able to stop taking payday loans for the unemployed?
Where the Projection for More UK Jobs Came From
Philip Hammond’s prediction of over half a million more Britons being in employment came from the forecasts of the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility). The problem is that he gave absolutely no clues about where or how the positions will be created. The same occured last year when the Chancellor delivered the 2017 budget. The only solution is to read the OBR publication. What exactly did they say?
In their report, the OBR explained that they’d used figures provided by the ONS. There they explain the predicted rises in the UK population by 2023. OBR said:
“The 0.6 million increase in employment over the forecast is, therefore, more than accounted for by population growth…since inward migrants are disproportionate of working age…around three-quarters of the projected rise in employment is accounted for by net inward migration.”
Who will be filling the job vacancies?
In other words, this rise in those employed is explained by the expected increases in people entering the workplace. Therefore, an increase in the working population from 32.1 million to a projected 32.7 million by 2023 wouldn’t make a blind bit of difference to the unemployment rate. This is because this increase would coincide with a corresponding increase in population. Their second point is the vast majority of the jobs will be filled by migrants.
Of course, this isn’t how his statement was interpreted by the members of the press nor the public. The question is whether he was being deliberately misleading. This is quite possible. Last year, this ‘good’ news was announced just after depressing statistics about projected levels of productivity being lower than forecast. Did he include this fact as a way to distract attention about what these statistics revealed about the future of the British economy?
To answer the question we posed above – yes, the figure is, but it isn’t what you’d have expected.
Our next consideration is to look at what jobs are expected to be in demand in the future.
UK Jobs Forecasted to be in Demand by 2022
In a June 2014 report prepared by the IPPR (Institute of Public Policy Research), they prepared a ‘top 10’ of UK jobs they expected to be in demand in 2022. Interestingly, the top 3 were all professions in the fields of social care and health such as nurses, doctors, carers, etc. They predicted that the UK would need another 2.75 million employees in these areas.
They explained that one reason was the high rates of retirement and working conditions causing people to leave these professions. Another reason was based on the ONS figures for average life expectancy in the UK. An ageing population would make these professions of paramount importance.
The IPPR noted that to attract employees to these professions, there’d have to be radical changes in how they’re viewed. Specifically carers. Also, there had to be an end to exploitative practices. These include as zero hour contracts or employers deliberately not paying them for the travelling time between clients.
If this doesn’t happen, then many of these 800,000 ‘extra’ job positions will be badly-paid and be of limited use in pulling people out of poverty.
Budget Measures to Help People into Work
If the Chancellor didn’t directly mention how jobs could be created, were there any measures in his Budget to increase people’s employment chances? Let’s look briefly at some of them.
In his budget speech, the chancellor promised to back another 10,000 entrepreneurs by extending Start-Up Loans funding to 2021. He also promised to extend the New Enterprise Allowance – offering mentoring and support for individuals to get their business idea off the ground.
Mr Hammond introduced a new system of T level vocational training. The system is delivering 3 million apprenticeships in parliament through a new National Retraining Scheme. However, that system is paid for by employers.
For smaller firms taking on apprentices, the chancellor announced that they will only have to contribute half the amount – from 10% to 5%. In total, he presented a £695m package to support apprenticeships.
The chancellor committed to furthering technology with £1.6bn and an additional £150m to continue leading scientific research.
More UK jobs by 2023 – Conclusion
It’s very difficult to say with any certainty whether the rates of employment will decrease or increase in the future. Some measures being taken (such as the apprenticeship levy and digital learning) are designed to boost the skills which workers have. This will enable them to compete on the job market and command decent salaries.
On the other hand, the prospects of an ageing population will bring its own challenges. Caps on pay rises in the public sector and exploitative work practices for professions like carers raise questions about whether these jobs will continue to attract applicants in the future. Unless this aspect of this sector improves, those choosing to go into these professions will continue to struggle to make ends meet. Eventually, the need for bad credit payday loans might be prominent again.
We think you’ll enjoy these articles too:
The Archbishop of Canterbury’s Vow Against Payday Lenders: What Happened?
Gender Pay Gap UK Statistics